The Crappyconomist

Shocker: it's not all about final price

2009-11-05T20:05:00.003-05:00

Found a good article demonstrating the effect of salience on how we respond to costs. It uses the e-z pass system to look at how we are less responsive to less salient taxes (that is, more mentally taxing to remember, or not at the forefront of our consciousness). Unsurprisingly, it finds that less salient taxes produce fewer distortions. I like the article not because of its findings so much, which I consider intuitively obvious, but because E-Z pass is the perfect system to look at for showing the salience effect so starkly and nearly irrefutably. Wish I'd thought of it!

I came across the article via the Freakonomics blog. The poster there, Ayres, makes the case for irrational-number taxation using the same (though I do not think he's seriously advocating it). The idea is that you take some less salient number (he uses e^2) and set that as our sales tax for less distortionary effect and higher tax revenue. This idea intrigues me, and it'd be fun if we lived in a world where such thinks could be easily experimented with to see the results.

Out of sight, out of mind is one thing. If you're not presented with something directly it will be less salient, sure. But as far as this sales tax system is concerned, I don't think you'd get much out of sight, out of mind effect. You'd be looking more at difficulty to recall itself, given most people won't know Euler's number off hand. But I suspect that the result will just be that people don't concern themselves at all with Euler's number, but will simply round the final product off to one or two decimal places as Ayres himself does in the article, and that will be it, never again trying to calculate Euler's number or its square. So the total effect would just be that the remainder which has been rounded off has no effect on their behaviour.

Getting back to the idea of out of sight, out of mind, I've long since had the suspicion that fees serve this role for firms, to a large extent. I tried a while back to find research to back up this suspicion, but I was unsuccessful. I know it must be out there but it eluded my first attempt. My postulation is that because fees are often not obviously tied to costs, or that even when they are they are not well advertised at the point in the decision making process where the agent starts to form their opinions on whether or where to purchase, the fee will have less effect on purchase rate than a straight-up increase in price equal to the amount of the fee.

If this theory holds water, could we expect over-consumption of goods with higher fees? Assuming of course that gains in fee income are offset by drops in base price, as one would expect in an effectively competitive market. While the previous paragraph seems to make intuitive sense to me, the above sentence seems paradoxically improbable, making me think I'm missing something important in my reasoning...

A fond childhood memory

2009-02-18T20:26:00.005-05:00

I was in a group when I was younger that did annual pinewood derby races. For anybody who doesn't know, that's where you take a small block of wood and carve out/weight a car.

After pouring over the official rules I came up with this design:

You see, the cars are held in place at the starting line on the sloped track by a simple peg in the center of each lane, each attached to a lever which is turned to begin the race. I was of course incredibly happy with myself. I thought I was a genius. I'd get a good 4-5 inch jump on all the other cars and annoy the authorities (as I said, I poured over the rules before hand).

Much to my chagrin, they took my car off the table to prep it, stared at it perplexed for a few seconds, and flipped it around backwards on the track. Needless to say, I was crestfallen.

This was the next year's design:

^_^

Wish me luck

2008-12-17T18:08:00.001-05:00

I've been putting it off and putting it off, but the time has come. This is something I should have done a long time ago. I am going to read The Wealth of Nations.

God help me.

trying hard to dodge studying

2008-12-08T13:31:00.000-05:00

http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/alternate_currency.png

All just a little bit of history repeating

2008-11-28T23:05:00.002-05:00

So we had a guest speaker from the financial industry in one of my classes, and he asked who we thought was to blame for our current situation. My immediate reaction surprised me. I said it wasn't at all clear to me that anyone had messed up. I have spent countless seconds (because really, who counts seconds?) figuring out why I said that, and I think my subconscious from which the answer leapt has a point.

Has there ever been, anywhere in the modern world, a country that has endured a century or even a half century without a serious financial crisis? If not, if there is no exception, then isn't it reasonable to assume that it is the rule? Maybe it's just the way things are? Maybe it's just a testament to the fact that we haven't yet figured out why things are cyclical as they are. Know what I mean? It's just systematic shortcomings, not component failures.

Be warned

2008-11-28T22:58:00.001-05:00

This should be of no interest to anyone.

Oh bugger

2008-11-22T22:54:00.003-05:00

I'm sure everyone but me has heard this, but I've been preoccupied with school and so forgone reading the news. Obama to name Hillary Clinton Secretary of State? That's just mean Mr. Obama. You've already won, no need to pretend you like her anymore.

What up with this crazy economy?

2008-11-22T22:47:00.002-05:00

It's times like this we're reminded why laypersons might easily perceive macro-economists as a bunch crackpots.

Obama gives Summers a job after all

2008-11-22T22:39:00.002-05:00

Lawrence Summers will be the director for Obama's National Economic Council. WSJ equates that to being his chief economic advisor? I don't know much about advisory titles, but I take their word for it.

Not a bad move probably, with Summers' past. I don't necessarily disagree with any of the things he's said which have gotten him into hot water, but he, like myself, seems to lack tact and political savvy.

Glad he'll be playing a role at least.

I've never heard of this Geithner fellow. Time to hit up Wikipedia!

What makes Dubai such a happening place anyway?

2008-11-19T14:50:00.007-05:00

from gizmodo.com

Methinks this thing scans only the first page

2008-11-19T14:42:00.002-05:00

http://www.typealyzer.com/index.php?lang=en
63 posts in total prior to this, and one short entry alters my type.
That would explain how it reaches its conclusion so swiftly.

Pre-Yarr-post:
The analysis indicates that the author of http://crappyconomist.blogspot.com is of the type:
INTP - The Thinkers
[INTP]
The logical and analytical type. They are especialy attuned to difficult creative and intellectual challenges and always look for something more complex to dig into. They are great at finding subtle connections between things and imagine far-reaching implications.

They enjoy working with complex things using a lot of concepts and imaginative models of reality. Since they are not very good at seeing and understanding the needs of other people, they might come across as arrogant, impatient and insensitive to people that need some time to understand what they are talking about.

Post-Yarr-post:
ISTP - The Mechanics
[ISTP]
The independent and problem-solving type. They are especially attuned to the demands of the moment are masters of responding to challenges that arise spontaneously. They generelly prefer to think things out for themselves and often avoid inter-personal conflicts.

The Mechanics enjoy working together with other independent and highly skilled people and often like seek fun and action both in their work and personal life. They enjoy adventure and risk such as in driving race cars or working as policemen and firefighters.

Yarrr

2008-11-19T14:28:00.002-05:00

This is another good example of a thing which is terrible and should be vigorously discouraged, but is simultaneously very cool.

A lot of terrible/idiotic/dangerous things are also very cool. Someone the other day told me that a group of 15 motorcyclists getting together on a major interstate and popping standing wheelies at full speed was not cool! Bollocks!

Thievery is another example of bad/cool. Before you try to argue, consider heist movies/novels/shows and how well the genre has done for itself. "Thinking" thieves have undeniable appeal as protagonists.

If something cannot continue forever, it won't

2008-11-17T01:03:00.003-05:00

UPDATE: The CEO's from GM, Chrysler and Ford all arrive in DC for congressional hearings on private jets.

I'm a little bothered, if not at all surprised, by the snowballing push to bail out the Detroit 3 automakers (beyond the 25 billion already slated). The argument I'm hearing is that, like Fannie and Freddy, they are "too big to fail". They employ too many people, both directly and indirectly. What I am not hearing is how the auto industry is very much different than any other industry in the country.
Is it purely the size that is our concern? Do we grant a federal guarantee to any company who achieves a certain threshold girth? If so, if we really cannot let any large employer fail, there is very little reason for them to improve performance much, right? And doesn't this weird incentive scheme only tip the balance more in favor of markets players combining and concentrating market power?
If we accept that companies beyond a certain corpulence cannot be allowed to fail, is it not the logical conclusion that companies should be disallowed from reaching same said status?

Further, I reject the statistics for the number of jobs the country stands to lose in the case of one or more Detroit 3 failures.

Firstly, while I don't claim to really know too much about such things, it was my understanding that companies did not altogether cease existing when declaring bankruptcy and sking for protection from creditors. Either they try to recover, retool themselves, and move on or they are subsumed whole or piecemeal by others.

Secondly, many of the jobs, such as parts supplies, repairs, etc. would continue even if not one more GM car were ever to be sold. Fewer parts would be needed, and repair services demand would decline over time, but neither would be a wholesale loss.

Finally, if there is any case to be made for saving them, then they must be selling some amount of automobiles. If they should suddenly stop doing so, I doubt it'd take too very long for somebody to step in and merrily absorb the market share, automagically creating/saving some jobs.

Basically, my argument is this:
If we are saving them for the sake of saving an American business, why not Mom and Pop's Corner Store? If it is because they are too big to fail, why let them become so big? And if we decide we can't/shouldn't stop them from becoming so big, but wish to eliminate punishing market forces, why not just nationalize?

Now, all of the above and everything it is responding to is a dog and pony show, of course. This has nothing whatever to do with common sense, realistic doctrine, American pride, or ethics. This has everything to do with lobbyists, demographics, selfish executives/laborers, and political expediency.

Not yet elected, and Obama's starting to prove he's YAP. Not that he's alone in this, but live by the labor unions, die by the labor unions.

Why Bruce Lee is my Hero / Why I Love Laptops

2008-11-14T20:53:00.003-05:00

An ok man is one who endeavors to live according to his principles;

A good man is one who endeavors both to live according to his principles and to constantly improve upon his principles;

A great man is one who succeeds at both.

This maxim brought to you from my bathroom.

This is sweet

2008-11-06T21:33:00.007-05:00

http://www.zefrank.com/from52to48withlove/

It's a good message. Can't we all just get along?

I can go to bed early!

2008-11-04T21:41:00.002-05:00

I don't care what anybody says, smoking DOES make you look cool.

Obama for the win!

I am experiencing incredibly conflicted emotions right now. Al Franken is trading at 75% over at intrade.com. Al Franken. Is going to be a senator. Man that annoys me!

Wish this thing were closer. First time since 2000 I won't be staying up all night watching the news.

Neat idea

2008-10-14T22:28:00.002-04:00

I want one of these, only in a programmable scrolling LED bar form. Driving would be much improved if cars had more ways to communicate.

Mine would be much more vulgar, and include clever ways to hit on all the fly lady drivers.

"Your turn signals on moron"
"Gas tank's open!"
"S***, my bad!"
"YOU'RE BLINDING ME FRIEND"
"Wanna park?"
"804-xxx-xxxx - Call me!"
"COP!"

etcetera, etcetera

So's I'm sitting here wondering what exactly I'm going to do with my degree

2008-10-12T19:13:00.002-04:00

I get asked this question all the time, and I never have a good (honest or, better, fictional) answer. Now I do. From now on, when people ask me what I wanna do with my Economics degree, the response they'll get is "Become a bookie".

No real reason, just a conversation starter, and I think the ladies will find me edgier (always a good thing!) than if I tell them "I dunno...Maybe work in the public sector for a few years, then either launch a start-up or find a job in the finance industry or something...maybe see about getting my master in 5 years or so, maybe a PhD...wouldn't mind being a professor if anybody ever asked..."

To my brother and co-author

2008-10-12T15:23:00.002-04:00

I know I just added you for the sake of adding somebody, and in the hopes of a semi-layman's explanation of the LHC and its purpose, and that you only accepted the invite because the accept button was shiny and enticing, but you accepted so c'mon. Not even a hello? Too busy not writing on your own blog? Yeah, I know, "working and writing a thesis and moving" is time consuming, but when you spread that thesis work out over 2 years...

Further comments on EZ-Pass

2008-10-12T15:20:00.004-04:00

Yeah, they're pretty cool. Not only did they get it right about my violations, but their "fee" for the violations is not what you'd expect at all from such an agency! It's per-notice, not per-violation. It's a legitimate fee, not a fine, and done in a sensible fashion! Two violations, one very reasonable $25 charge + cost of all tolls ran (run?).

Kudos EZ-Pass, kudos.

Coolest article I've read in a long while

2008-10-06T22:12:00.004-04:00

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/3139663/Bond-creator-Ian-Fleming-saved-real-life-MI6.html

Ian Fleming was apparently his own primary source for the Bond stories! Further, he had at least a large role in saving MI6! Newly declassified, 60 year old documents tell the story.

Ninja Training falters / The Great Sleep hiccups

2008-10-06T21:55:00.007-04:00

Well, my back and various scattered throughout my body have been aching for almost a week now from various routine daily activities, mostly work-related, so it's been difficult to do much training. Can't do pushups when your whatever-that-muscle-on-the-outside-of-your-upper-arm-is-called is collapsing under your weight, or to run when your shins feel like they are about to snap. Rolling 10x14 rugs for an hour an a half at breakneck speeds in a rush to go home after 10 hours of work wears you down amazingly quick.

Add to these nuisances your only training buddy being some guy online, who happens to be on Japan Time right now, and it gets harder. I am determined to overcome though, I haven't mentally checked out yet.

I haven't been consistent enough in my sleep experiment to get any conclusive results. I've been doing much better about getting sleep than I HAD been, but so far all I can say with certainty is that it's easier to wake up in the morning after 8 hours of sleep than 4 (shocker). I have meds now, but haven't gotten 2 consecutive nights of good sleep since I attained them. Tonight will be my 2nd. We'll see how that goes!

Just a reminder that there's all kinds of people in this world

2008-10-06T21:46:00.003-04:00

http://jezebel.com/5059669/mtv-profiles-people-who-drop-out-of-society-to-live-off-the-grid

Respect your elder clams. Gobble up the babies.

Wow, I must be tired

2008-10-06T19:56:00.000-04:00

My god that was a rambling, incoherent post! For shame, for shame.

blah blah blah theory blah

2008-10-06T19:18:00.003-04:00

Yeah, never got back to that. Getting kind of tired though, and it's my last good night to study before game theory exam, so I'll just note that I noticed whenever having a discussion on complex issues, nothing makes people's eyes glaze over faster than the word or implication of the word "expert". Doesn't matter much how you use it. "overwhelming consensus among economists", "climatologists almost all agree", "no two physicists agree", "I was reading a very insightful essay by an economist named Steven Horwitz" all will elicit a silent scoff. The financial sector woes going on are what made me take notice, but then I started thinking back, and it's really been the same result regardless of the topic, be it global warming, vehicle congestion or evolution. Expert is a curse word in most situations.

As to the notes on the theory, how else can one explain the global warming debate vs. regulatory sub-prime lending requirements? The same people on either side of the debate will simultaneously embrace and tout one expert consensus while denouncing the consensus of the other group of experts, even lacking any particular expertise of their own!

In the case of global warming, the only reason I can come up with for its (ever evolving in the particulars) opposition to the proponents of the theory is that it is embraced by the mother-earth-is-sentient-and-demands-our-prayers crowd. There is no direct philosophical link between this opposition and the - for the sake of argument we'll define a specific dissenting group - republican party platform. Jesus did not say the earth can't warm up, and the belief that it could and that we could slow or stop the trend isn't anti-capitalist.

Similarly with the "every person needs to own a home on credit" crowd, expert consensus is easily and flippantly dismissed because it runs counter to their cause of pluralism and equality etc. Even among those not in said group the expert opinion is not enough to sway them (or was not enough, now that it's come to a head with immediately-observable empirical evidence changing things) sufficiently to put up any sort of fight.

Now, experts can certainly be wrong. I would never suggest otherwise. But as an individual, if you know nothing significant about the issue, why would you instinctively and reflexively disagree? That's the question, and I gave my best-guess answer. Absent philosophical/religious motives, insecurity and a feeling of empowerment derived from dissent, whether outright disagreement or simple dismissal of expert opinion, provides the best answer. I say this because the more complex and abstract the problem, the more likely people are to scoff at experts.

This semester is going terribly

2008-10-03T19:35:00.002-04:00

Just can't seem to get in the groove. Classes aren't very tough, just not studying enough & can't seem to keep track of my time or even homework due dates.

Weird how erratic my performance (inputs not outputs) is from month to month or even semester to semester. Wish I could figure out what makes that difference.

Insecurity Expert-Denial Theory of Complex System Analysis (TM pending(¥))

2008-10-01T18:23:00.009-04:00

I hope to win a Nobel Prize for this contribution to humanity, in every category except Literature and, of course, Peace. Not that it wouldn't be relevant to the Peace prize, but who would want that thing? It's value has been in rapid decline since the inception of Nobel Prizes due to increasing over-availability, and shows no signs of stopping its descent as it fast approaches negative utility value for lovers of peace.

Pre-amble:
I read some place or other that somewhere on the order of 95% of the world thinks they are of above average intelligence; Nobody likes to think they are stupid, understandably enough. Neither do they want to give anybody around them any information suggesting they are stupid. There have also been many instances throughout history of an entire scientific community believing something strongly, only to be proven wrong later, and everybody is aware of at least a few of these stories. Further, going against the grain has long been held to be "cool" and "insightful", particularly in western countries.

The above are some of the underlying human characteristics that help to explain my theory. I gotta refine the wording a bit and collect some more data before submitting for publication, but the basic idea is as follows:

When faced with a situation where an opinion needs to be formed as to the cause(s) of or solution(s) to any socially significant ("water-cooler" or subculture-related gabbing material) issue too complex for an individual to expect he could understand significantly, that individual will tend invariably toward positions contrary to any existing expert consensus, constrained only - to a lesser or greater degree* - by any positive relationship perceived between that expert consensus and one or more of the individual's already held positions or causes.

I need to get back to studying, so I'll have to come back to this later tonight and fully explain the theory.

* The extent to which the tendency towards contrarianism is constrained is a function of three factors: How many positions/causes it supports, the relative importance of those positions/causes to the individual, and whether and how strongly the contrarian position is taken up by individuals or groups known by the individual to oppose his or her other positions/causes. Note: group feuds are, where they exist, are usually more powerful motivational factors in the stance-deciding process than the former two (See: Congress [Continental, confederation, & U.S.], 1774-1781, 1781-1789, and 1789-present respectively). Further study is needed to determine the relative weighted importance of these three factors in the issue positioning process.

(¥)Can you trademark theory names?

Live Free or Die Silly

2008-10-01T18:05:00.002-04:00

When Hollywood makes a cop movie, you see in the credits and they talk about in interviews the police consultants they brought in to try and keep things realistic(ish). Why, when they make movies about computer exploitation and cyber-terrorism, is the only consultation being done a 20 minute Q&A with some boom operator's 80 year old grandmother who is giving them her interpretation of a Washington Post Op-Ed that she found frightening?

How not to design a salary graduation process

2008-09-30T17:47:00.006-04:00

I know Capital One consistently performs well on the "best places to work" lists, but I don't think I'm going to be applying there any time soon.

My organizational behaviour teacher is an HR manager there, and so she regularly weaves capital one anecdotes and analogies into her lectures. She was talking about motivation theories, and when raise practices came up, she related to us Capital One's policy. Apparently how they do it o'er there is they get all the bosses overseeing employee type 'x' in a room, and essentially they rank the employees' by performance, dividing them into some number (I forget the precise figure) of performance levels - Too much detail maybe, let me just cut to the chase...the top 10% of the employees get, say, a 6% raise. The next tier maybe 5%. 50% of the employees are ranked "average" (I think they use the term "strong" as a more palatable substitute), and get a mediocre raise, and so on and so forth.

Now, my immediate thought was "that's assanine". Wouldn't such a intra-company relative-performance based method essentially guarantee your team remained industry-average over the long term? Wouldn't this increase employee turnover rate unless your team was exceptionally average by industry standards? I mean, if pay is based exclusively on your percentile ranking within the company, and your company's employees on the whole are better than the next guy's, then unless you are in that top 10% for the company then your pay will necessarily drop below the industry average for somebody of your skill. That is, if you are a 50th percentile, completely average worker at Capital One, and a 60th percentile worker by industry standards, then you are being paid a 50th percentile worker's salary when the industry compensating efficiently would be paying you a 60th percentile worker's salary.

It seems like this would provide you a huge incentive to leave for a company that will pay you based on a more absolute-performance basis. So Capital One is ensuring that anybody who is above average, but not a top dog at capital one, has a really good reason to leave, eventually causing your overall employee performance to move towards the industry mean. I told our professor that it seemed like a horrible schema to me, and to her credit she agreed and said there have been a lot of people clamoring for change, but I don't think she understood exactly why I thought it would increase turnover. Her response was that, yes, it upset people, but I think she was saying this was because they thought they should be ranked higher. I suppose that goes to show that we all view things through our own lenses? The economics student sees possibly counter-productive monetary incentives, the HR person sees inter-personal strife and hurt feelings.

Apparently the system is not going away any time soon though, despite HR's complaints, as it is an edict handed down from the CEO himself, and he is very fond of the method and unwavering in its support.

Anybody out there in the vacant parking lot that is, metaphorically, Crappyconomist's readership see some upsides I haven't been able to find, or spot a flaw in my reasoning? I'd be delighted to hear.

PETA is the best

2008-09-26T23:33:00.001-04:00

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26892950/wid/11915773?GT1=31037

Now if you'll excuse me, there's a slug creeping across the table. Gotta run and get some salt:)

Pennies, damnable pennies, and...

2008-09-24T21:23:00.003-04:00

I've posted about the need to eliminate the penny.

Daniel Hamermesh goes one...two...five steps further, and calls for the elimination of the dollar bill.

http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/24/pennies-enough-already/

Not sure how I feel about this one. I think converting all items in the dollar store up to two dollars may be a little overboard. Certainly a dollar is a useful unit of account? I pay a dollar for a pack of gum. I'm paying $3.50 for gasoline now, with a minimum two dollar note that'd represent a 14% increase in the price of gas.

Of course, we could move to the 1.4 dollar note, but that seems like way too much arithmetic. I'll pass.

**EDIT**
Upon re-reading, it sounds like he's advocating replacing dollar bills with coins, not eliminating the dollar bill. That's easier to digest. Isn't paper cheaper than most metals, though? Speaking as a male (we males have to keep all our money, CC's, etc. in a 1/2x2x3 inch piece of leather), I'd rather keep dollar bills paper please. Women don't know how lucky they are. Somebody should start seriously promoting the manpurse, I'd be all over that if it wouldn't mean being socially ostracized...

Yeah, I'm uh...

2008-09-24T20:45:00.001-04:00

I'm uh...in training. I promised more, and I have delivered!

Training for Ninja Warrior, that is.

I of course am not delusional, and fully understand that training for a TV show is ridiklus, but the point is simply the type and intensity of the training/conditioning.

Enter the Ninja

2008-09-23T00:05:00.001-04:00

More to come on Wednesday.

The Quest for Sleep: Update

2008-09-19T23:12:00.002-04:00

I slipped last night due largely to stress about homework due today, and wound up getting something like 2 hours of sleep. A strange thing happened though, rather than repeating today like I normally would, my body instead went into complete shutdown (aided by being out of my ADD meds because I kept forgetting to schedule an appointment with my Doc (irony, no?)) and I could not stay conscious.

- I fell asleep after waking up but before going to school (missing my first class of the day)
- I fell asleep right after getting home (about 1:00) for I have no idea how long
- I took a nap with Liam (he slept for 1 1/2 hours, I slept for 3 hours thanks to my mom being kind enough to watch him rather than jostling me out of bed)
- I fell asleep watching a movie with Liam at around 6
- and I am now about to pass out as I write this entry, ensuring 8 1/2 hours of sleep tonight.

Frankly, I don't know what to think of this. Is it simply due to not taking my meds? I've missed days before without this happening. Is it my body having adjusted to want more sleep? It hardly seems like 2 or 3 nights of decent sleep could drastically alter my circadian rhythm. Is it some bizarre placebo effect brought about merely by thinking about sleep deprivation?

Maybe I'm anemic or something. The other day, I slept for 14 hours straight, and only got up after alarm clocks and some small measure of prodding. Sleeping for more than 14 hours can't be normal or healthy, can it?

Go, Barr, go!

2008-09-18T22:14:00.002-04:00

Bob Barr, Libertarian Party presidential nominee is trying to have McCain and Obama's names taken off the ballots in Texas for late filing. I am tickled pink, and hope fervently that he wins. If he doesn't, it will be no small hypocrisy, as Barr's website notes "Third parties are not allowed on the ballot for missing deadlines, as was the case for our campaign in West Virginia".

Kudos Barr for challenging the broken two-party system! I wish Virginia weren't a battleground state, so I could vote 3rd-party without it being a complete waste. Irregardless of ideology, a victory in this suit would be good for the lulz. Go, Barr, go!

Thank god

2008-09-18T16:20:00.002-04:00

Good news! I'm not the only one who can't wrap his head around banking and global financial markets!

http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/18/diamond-and-kashyap-on-the-recent-financial-upheavals/

"As an economist, I am supposed to have something intelligent to say about the current financial crisis. To be honest, however, I haven’t got the foggiest idea what this all means. So I did what I always do when something related to banking arises: I knocked on the doors of my colleagues Doug Diamond and Anil Kashyap, and asked them for the answers."

That really makes me feel better. I do want to be an economist, but that sh-er-stuff just bores the bejeesus out of me. Me trying to read books on the economics of banking is like watching the hallmark channel or sex in the city. My eyes glaze over and I fall into a state approaching "waking coma".

I'll keep trying to get it, sure, but I hope to god I can avoid it ever factoring significantly into my career. Maybe, as has happened with so many other complex concepts I've struggled with, I'll just keep reading and struggling and reading some more and then BAM - out of nowhere - I'll be standing in the shower one weekend and it will all just click in a "Eureka!" fashion.

Fingers crossed!

For real

2008-09-16T23:50:00.000-04:00

OK, 8 hrs. sleep per night experiment starts now. I have unfinished homework due first thing the the morning. Instead of doing the usual staying up 'til 3 and maybe, maybe not getting it done/getting it done well, I am sleeping. Getting 8 hours. Same tomorrow night, and every night for 2 weeks. Whatever is unfinished at bedtime will be unfinished in the morning.

Wish me luck.

Continuity in post style, zomg

2008-09-15T22:49:00.002-04:00

Below please find the entirety of my lecture notes from tonight's 2-1/2 hour MGMT 319 - Organizational Behaviour class.

"
She just made the class do jumping jacks to wake up.

...

...

I am an aspiring economist.

...

...

I am disillusioned.
"

Those notes more-or-less sum up my feelings on this course.

I would like to issue an errata

2008-09-13T19:30:00.000-04:00

The fines were legit. I am an imbecile. Sorry E-Z pass.

...

...

...

I still feel violated.

I for one welcome our new robot overlords

2008-09-12T21:57:00.003-04:00

The voyeurs over at E-Z Pass headquarters sent me a little love note today. Inside I found a picture of my hindquarters and a polite request for $25.90 for two toll violations. I will not pay this fine. I would go to jail before I would pay this fine.

I have never run a toll in my life, and always wait until I see a green light before I go through. I do distinctly remember one of the days for which a fine has been assessed. It was pouring down rain, my tires skidded a bit starting through, and the light went red before I was all the way past and I thought to myself "I wonder if these stupid machines are going to count that as a no-pay". Yes, yes they were.

The invoice I was sent says disputes must be made within 30 days, but the form they want me to send in lists the reasons for the dispute explicitly:

- I have an e-z pass account (insert account number)
- car is leased
- car has been sold
- car has been stolen
- plates have been sold
- the license plate/car in the picture is not mine or the license plate pictured is not the one listed

Nowhere is there an option or a space for me to write in "I paid the toll you louts"

I've just about had it with fines and fees. It's like an economic disease. This is a step beyond. Automated citation, with no option given to question the accuracy of the breach detection.

As a final insult, they included in the amount due the toll price for the two offenses, given as 45 cents a piece. The QUARTER tolls which I am accused of running were not raised to 45 cents until this past monday, 2 days AFTER the date of the last supposed infraction. So they are applying the newer toll price ex-post-facto.

Fie. Pay? No, I'd sooner die.

Swift death to our robotic overlords!

Organizational Behaviour

2008-09-10T14:42:00.002-04:00

Organizational behaviour class, no so organized. More on this later.

So conflicted

2008-09-10T14:34:00.002-04:00

http://blog.wired.com/underwire/2008/03/anti-emo-riots.html

I don't know whether I think this story is terrible or hilarious.

All I know is this post probably disqualifies me from higher public office.

p.s. In case you're not quite sure what an emo is

My brother is famous(ish)!

2008-08-27T20:57:00.005-04:00

My brother is currently beating out britney spears as top human result and third overall result for the google image search "electric clipper"

How cool is that? He's the dunce with the big patch missing in front, shot taken against a mirror:

hi-larious article from 2003

2008-08-27T20:48:00.001-04:00

Via Greg Mankiw:
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9E06E3D6123BF932A2575AC0A9659C8B63&sec=&spon=&partner=permalink&exprod=permalink

The resemblance is striking

2008-08-25T23:53:00.004-04:00

http://www.myheritage.com/FP/Company/face-recognition-results.php?temp=62773b847sxu7g05&server=Server5&database=2&startYear=1800&endYear=2005&collage=1&loadMethod=myFiles

Time to Get Rid of that Pesky Penny

2008-08-25T22:35:00.002-04:00

copied in entirety from jeffmcbride.net. I have nothing to add, and nothing to deduct.

I would like to voice my support for retiring the US penny. It is a waste of time and metal. I have a jar containing virtually every penny that has passed through my hands for the last year, and it is not worth enough for me to drive to the grocery store and deal with the change counting machine. I’m certainly never going to count them myself, nor am I going to carry them around and spend them. I only save them in the jar because I can’t bring myself to throw away money. If your purchases are rounded to the nickel, would you ever even notice? For that matter, I could get behind retiring both the penny and the nickel at the same time. The dime is small enough to cover any cash transaction, and it is a nice even metric 1/10th of a dollar.

But the penny is a no brainer. It has outlived its usefulness. Sorry Abe.

Just came across these two articles from 2001 and 2005

2008-08-24T23:21:00.003-04:00

and they seemed mutually supportive. The first is from the APA

http://www.apa.org/releases/needs.html

"The researchers found relatively consistent results across the three different time frames and across the two different cultures, with autonomy, competence, relatedness and self-esteem emerging as the most important psychological needs. When asked about their most unsatisfying event, the participants' responses revealed that the lack of the top four needs (autonomy, competence, relatedness and self-esteem) were the most important factors."

The second is a BBC article from 2005 on a survey of the UK's happiest professions.

Top five happiest:

1 Hairdressers (40%)

2 Clergy (24%)

3 Chefs/cooks (23%)

4 Beauticians (22%)

5 Plumbers (20%)

Top five unhappiest:

Social Workers (2%)

Architects (2%)

Civil Servants (3%)

Estate Agents (4%)

Secretaries (5%)

The bottom five will be unsurprising to anybody who has ever talked to a social worker or been to the department of motor vehicles. Architect makes sense too, considering half of their job is dealing with decidedly unhappy civil servants and the myriad of baffling regulations they churn out at superhuman speeds, and the other half is math.

But what I found interesting were the reasons suggested for the UK survey's results.

"Michael Osbaldeston of City & Guilds said there were plenty of reasons why hairdressers should be happy.

"It is the relationship they have with their client which makes the job what it is," he said.

"They are appreciated. They make people feel good and look good. Many of them have the opportunity to be their own bosses and that also seems to be something that is quite important in people's happiness." "

Looking at the list from the BBC article, the APA's conclusions seem very plausible.

On autonomy, the top five all operate with a great deal of autonomy. A hair dresser or beautician is essentially a stand-alone shop within an umbrella salon, with their own list of regular customers, and completely responsible for their results from start to finish in most cases. Whether they do well and their customers are satisfied/return is almost entirely up to them. Plumbers likewise are responsible beginning to end, and usually set their own hours and appointments. The bottom five spend the majority of their time trying to work within the confines of oppressive beaurocracy, which must be all the worse for all the architectural graduate students with visions of being the lone director of the construction of the next Sydney Opera House or w/e it is architecture nerds are into. The entire job of a secretary is to serve the needs of whoever she is the secretary for, not too much autonomy there.

On "relatedness" (social connectedness per the APA report), not much needs to be said, as it is pretty self-evident from the lists. On the one occassion where I had to deal with a social worker, not only was there no great amount of interpersonal warmth, but we had to go over her head to her boss because we couldn't even get in touch with her after about 2 months of trying. Secretaries, by and large I would imagine, suffer quite a bit worse in this regard because (and I could be off base here never having been a secretary) most of their co-workers wouldn't be peers (assuming a professional occupation as in a lawyer's/doctor's office).

All of the top five also share strong potential in the "competence" field. Not only do they control the end results almost unilaterally, but they get constant positive feedback if they do well, since each job is self contained and rather short in duration. A good haircut, a good sermon or talk with a member of the church, a perfectly cooked flank steak, etc. Many of the bottom five lack even easily identified measures of success.

The lesson we take away from this seems obvious: Forget trying to help people in significant yet incremental ways, or even getting that business degree. Take up blacksmithing or some other trade instead. After all, "Attaining popularity or influence and money or luxury is not what makes people the happiest and is at the bottom of the list of psychological needs" (APA)

Score 1 accidental point for congress

2008-08-24T22:34:00.005-04:00

Another good example of why specifically targeted subsidizing of particular technologies is not an efficient way to address energy/environmental concerns.

From the article, on why the failure to extend the solar tax credits is a good thing:

"Global solar production, measured by the megawatts of power that solar cells and modules produce once they're hooked up to the grids, climbed 57% in 2004, according to investment bank Jefferies International. And it increased 30% in 2005, 35% in 2006 and a projected 13% in 2007...Young growth industries facing a virtually untapped market shouldn't show slowing growth rates...Companies that turn silicon ingots into solar wafers couldn't get enough crystalline silicon to meet orders from solar-cell makers. That forced makers of solar cells and modules to idle capacity. Utilization rates...fell among solar-cell makers to 70% in 2005 from 86% in 2004. And the problem kept getting worse in 2006 and 2007."

A large part of this demand, unsurprisingly, is not coming form the US. For instance, from later on in the article, China has recently mandated that 5% of utilities' total power production be from renewables by 2010. This got me to thinking: I very rarely hear in the popular discussion about public funding of research and emerging technologies any consideration given to what OTHER countries are already doing regarding the technology or field in question. Surely there are diminishing returns on investment for investing in solar technology when demand is already outstripping our ability to supply by 30%, or even when supply is able to meet demand. Why view something like energy research in such an ethnocentric fashion?

We can only control our own actions, and it'd be ideal if everybody shouldered the burden according to their ability. Still, to ignore the past actions and expected future actions of the other players in the game when making your own decisions is just inefficient.

lolz

2008-08-23T00:24:00.001-04:00

http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/08/22/sign.vandals.ap/index.html?iref=mpstoryview

http://stuffwhitepeoplelike.com/2008/05/12/99-grammar/

2008-08-11T02:31:00.003-04:00

If true, this is disturbing, and further continuation of the Ghost Recon story line!

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/10/un.georgia/index.html

"At an emergency session of the United Nations' Security Council, the U.S. alleged Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice that Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili "must go."

"This is completely unacceptable and crosses a line," said the U.S. ambassador to the U.N., Zalmay Khalilzad, who made the allegation."

Part of the Russian ambassador's response:

""Sometimes there are democratically elected or semi-democratically elected leaders who do things which create grave problems for their countries," Churkin told reporters after the meeting. "So sometimes, those leaders should contemplate how useful they have become to their people.""

What're they playing at, I wonder? Clearly they want to keep this thing going. Georgia has honored a ceasefire for almost 24 hours now, and yet Russia is only getting more aggressive, attacking at Georgia's heart. An attempt to overthrow the government is looking more and more plausible. They needn't bomb the heart of Georgia to help secure South Ossetia. They're also moving hard in Abkhazia now.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/10/georgia.russia/index.html

"U.N. Assistant Secretary-General Edmond Mulet said Russian personnel and weapons were part of a military buildup in Abkhazia's capital, Sukhumi. The Georgian government said 4,000 Russian troops have landed in Abkhazia, according to the AP."

And again, during the Olympic games. Russia should be ashamed of itself.

Crafty, very crafty. Good foresight.

2008-08-10T20:15:00.003-04:00

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7375526.stm

Apparently Russia has been offering easy citizenship to the people in the independence-seeking provinces of Georgia, so that it could justify military intervention in the name of defending its citizens. That's pretty brilliant, if you ask me.

Incidentally, from the same article, Russia has been a staunch opponent of seperatism where it did not favor their aims. Russia has opposed both Tibet and Kosovo's bids for independence. I also seem to remember reading somewhere that they likewise oppose Taiwanese independence. Realpolitik rears its ugly head in Russia.

That said, the situation is not so clear-cut as I thought. The territories in question, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, seem to have a much more solid claim for independent sovereignty than I would have expected. Still, an attack on Georgia proper by Russia seems pretty horrible given the two nation's past. I hope they get spanked pretty badly, though I don't see how that'd happen. Let's just hope Russia stops short of actual attempts at conquest.

In the past I have likened Russia to a recovering alcoholic. They've made some good progress towards liberalism and becoming a good international neighbour, but they're still just one drink away from slipping back into USSR mode, with expansionism replacing communalism as the poison/secular religion of choice.

As usual, BBC news makes U.S. news look silly

2008-08-10T20:03:00.003-04:00

The BBC gives an informative brief background on the Georgian-Russian conflict ongoing.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7549736.stm

Additionally, their analysis and background section found on that page gives a good grounding in the relevant issues.

Very little trouble finding the coverage on news.bbc.co.uk, a very different experience from the big names in American news. Perhaps the airwaves are one place where government-run corporations are justified. Spectrum IS limited, and a public resource, so government has a role in deciding what is done with it. The BBC News seems to be a huge success story, and doesn't really preclude competition, as can be seen by the availability of alternative news sources in UK television.

Edit: You'll not that their analysis of the situation goes back to April, when CNN, MSNBC, and Fox News could not have cared less about the goings-on in the former USSR.

Life imitates art

2008-08-10T18:01:00.001-04:00

When it was first reported that Russian forces had moved on Georgia, me and my brother both looked at each other and said "Hey, it's ghost recon!" Apparently, we weren't the only two people to draw this connection:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Clancy%27s_Ghost_Recon_(video_game)#Plot_summary

Nostradamus is put to shame by Tom Clancy. Ghost Recon opens August 2008, with Russia supporting rebel factions within Georgia, and Shortly thereafter invading the state with Ukrainian support. Ukraine, incidentally, was initially in support of this real life invasion as well, though they have withdrawn their support given Russia's breaking their promise not to advance beyond South Ossetia. Ukraine is now saying that they will not allow the Russian vessels currently blockading Georgia to return. The vessels in question are housed in Ukrainian bases leased by the Russians.

Hilariously, this tremendous story has been getting very little news coverage offline. I was channel surfing yesterday trying to find somebody covering it in depth, and was met with idiotic news reporters harping endlessly about some little girl who has gone missing. The rest of the coverage was Olympics-oriented. I wonder if Russia planned this to coincide with the Olympic games? I know China and Russia still have some not fully resolved territorial disputes of their own, and China would be hugely censured if they tried to take advantage of this situation while they were hosting the games. China is also probably the world's foremost advocate for rights of sovereignty.

Another thought: Where are all the world-wide anti-war protests now? Apparently they are only anti-war when the U.S. or Israel are involved? Hypocrites!

English 200

2008-07-29T00:26:00.000-04:00

Epic Win

Efficient Representative Government

2008-07-17T21:40:00.004-04:00

preamble:
I've given this subject perhaps 10 minutes of thought, so don't judge too harshly.

I was just thinking about the upcoming presidential elections, and started getting mildly miffed as usual by some aspects of our system. I've heard it said that the two-party hierarchical system is actually the most representative because it forces candidates to address the largest possible base if they want any chance at becoming a representative. I also mused about the presidential/prime ministerial/insert-head-of-government-title-here system.

In order to vote for any candidate you have to accept that he may disagree with you in any number of different areas. Frequently I find myself having to shelve entire policy regions altogether because either both candidates' positions on the issue vary widely from my own, or the area (e.g. foreign policy, economic philosophy, etc.) in question is just not as important as another policy position that only one of the candidates supports.

Further, as specialists often lament (economics is a GREAT example here), no candidate can possibly be informed on all topics/issues of possible concern. It is unreasonable to expect one individual to have wisdom and insight on issues of trade policy, diplomatic relations, military operations, the sciences, education, health care, AND law. So my question is, can we have it all ways at once?

Would it be a better representation if we adopted a system other than the top-down one we have now? I acknowledge that there is separation of powers, and that there are many different committees and agencies dealing with these and other policy regions. However, when we elect the people at the helm - the representatives, senators, and presidents - we are not electing them to one sector or the other.

Would a sort of constitutional system-of-systems be plausible, A government where we elect our leaders to fill specific roles (maybe we could get economists some say in our economic policy?), including among the roles the facilitation of the interaction between those roles? Sure, there would be overlap and contradiction many times, but is that necessarily an insurmountable obstacle?

Does anybody do this presently (excluding the usual military-civil government dichotomies)? I would love to get some country names if they do, so I can look into it!

We stand now on the precipice...

2008-07-09T19:38:00.002-04:00

It is now 7:30 p.m. on Wednesday, July 9th, 19 and 1/2 hours before the all-important deadline. It is now just under 12 hours until I am due to leave for work in the morning, if I make it there at all. I am well-rested and have a freezer full of Dr Pepper and the coffee machine running full-tilt. Thunder crashes ominously and rain pummels the roof in the background as I sit in my make-shift office on the back porch.

If I succeed, one of the worst episodes of my life (English 200, attempts 1, 2, and 3) will be behind me forever, and there will be much revelry, cake, and gift-giving. If I fail then a terrible unknown fate awaits me. My understanding of VCU rules and procedures is that you are not allowed to make more than 3 attempts at any course. However, this course is a prerequisite for every single other course I need from here on out. To further complicate things, as of this coming fall semester English 200 will no longer be offered at VCU. What am I to make of this? I have no idea, perhaps I should speak with any advisor. But I digress...

As of right now, this is where I stand.

Will I fail or will I succeed? Will I survive either way? I will let you, my dear, imaginary readers know as soon as I myself do.

Busy, busy, busy

2008-07-02T20:22:00.004-04:00

The poker project has been delayed indefinitely as we were unable to generate sufficient interest. Bugger.

This paper is keeping me super busy, so that's why the lack of posts here. I have a tendency to try and over do things. I counted up all the sources I've read that I would do well to include in my paper, and I'm at 26. That's *maybe* too much for a paper with a 15 page limit!

Ah well, I'd rather have too much data than too little, and I think I know which ones I absolutely must keep. I'm trying to get creative with this thing and see how many eclectic, screwball, and barely-related-to-thesis sources I can make work. It's an essay on the relevance of cultural consideration in international relations analyses, dealing specifically with Confucianism and Chinese foreign policy 1947-to-present and beyond.

So far I've found ways to incorporate an essay on the game of Go, one on Chinese management styles, one on commercial dispute arbitration at CIETAC, the Art of War, a couple books on doing business in China (one uses the word "Streetsmarts in the title:), a book entitled "China's New Culture of Cool", a travel guide, and a book on poker strategy.

Cruel Irony

2008-06-26T22:24:00.000-04:00

I am drawing near the end of my 3rd and, hopefully last, attempt at English 200. Today marks the second time in 2 semesters that a fellow student in the class has approached me to take a look at their paper and help them, because of my thoroughness and insightfulness during workshopping of rough drafts. I almost died (cause of death: irony).

I can edit, critique, guide and idea storm like a NYT chief editor, but I can't write a bleeding 13 page paper to save my (academic) life. Bugger all!

If anybody needs me, I'll be in the corner weeping.

::weep, weep::

Poker Project Update:

2008-06-23T01:06:00.000-04:00

Game postponed until Friday at the earliest. More preparation time, I suppose.

Not sure how much I trust 60 minutes researchers, but...

2008-06-21T23:08:00.007-04:00

I've always thought micro-economics would end up being more my thing, as its derivative macroeconomics has always seemed kind of stale to me. Not to say I don't appreciate it or seek a better understanding, but it rarely evokes the same kind of passion, the sort that keeps me up at night thinking.

I've lately developed a fairly intense curiosity about efficient individual time and task management strategies as a result of my far above average suckiness at both; We're talking 3 standard deviations here, easy...but I digress. I watched an episode of 60 minutes the other day dealing with sleep deprivation. That's a lie - I listened to a morning show where all of the personalities had watched a 60 minutes special on sleep deprivation and were discussing it. I should try and track down the episode online, but from what I gathered it was essentially a review of the literature on sleep deprivation's causes and effects.

According to the show, the average (and apparently standard deviation is small, with few outliers) adult human requires between 7 1/2 and 8 hours of sleep a night. While this may well be common knowledge - as I've pointed out in an earlier post, common knowledge is often not common to me - it was always my understanding that the current consensus was 6-7 hours a night. I've always attempted and usually failed to trade sleep for getting the things accomplished that I've needed to. If, however, this second-hand account of a second-hand account of research is to be believed, I've been pursuing a fundamentally flawed strategy. According to the show (which hence-forth refers to the radio talk show, not 60 minutes), the drop-off in cognitive and physical performance vastly off-sets any gain in work time at ALL levels below this 7 1/2 hour cutoff. Meaning, I might be better off just going to sleep at 10 p.m. the night before an assignment is due even if I haven't finished it, as in the long run this sleep-enabling routine would make meeting my deadlines exponentially easier.

It's hard for me to stomache the thought of calling it a day at 10 p.m., which was the point the people on the show were trying to make. Even if faced with an overwhelming pile of evidence showing that you are a better person, have a lower risk of diabetes and other health maladies, and get more done by ensuring 8 hours of sleep a night, most people would STILL stubbornly resist adjusting their schedules to accommodate it. They theorized about the reasons for this, and noted that the researchers quoted in the 60 minutes episode were eternally frustrated by this predicament. Our society, they mused, is not only inclined to label nappers or people who go to sleep before 9 at night as "lazy", but conversely tends to treat short sleepers as tougher or harder working to the extent that it is a common bragging point to say that you run on 4 or 5 hours sleep a night.

According to the show, the real key is "deep sleep", by which I assume they meant REM sleep (Hey, I retained something from Psych 101!). Apparently the amount of deep sleep we get, or at least its degree of benefit, declines more and more rapidly the further we fall below the 7 1/2 hours of sleep mark, MEANING as we decrease our time spent sleeping we have *drastically* diminishing returns in effective productivity.

Now while the assertions of a radio morning shows debating an episode of 60 minutes is hardly enough to make me drop to my knees and repent the error of my ways, it has got me thinking. I'm going to try over the next 2-3 weeks to enforce an 8-hour sleep regiment on myself, and create a questionnaire to fill out at the end of each day to try and gauge my general feelings of alertness, well being, productivity, and focus throughout the day, and continue this self-reporting for a couple of weeks there-after. Of course I'll still leave myself a couple hours of leeway on Dungeons & Dragons night, which may actually help this pseudo-scientific experiment by adding another control. If I really feel like it's been making a positive difference (as opposed to just contributing to my failing English for the 3rd time, as I really don't have much free time outside of the late evening and night), I'll give it another go for a couple of weeks at least.

Another avenue of inquiry I'd like to pursue is to try and find and compare data on productivity and any other relevant measures that occur to me during my investigation from countries with differing length work days and weeks. If such a thing really exists as institutionalized work day siestas (is that a myth about Mexico? I'll have to see, I guess), I'll also look into the effects of that on personal productivity. If what the show was saying is accurate, it seems like it ought to actually benefit a company for a worker to take an hour nap in the middle of the day - something which would almost certainly result in me losing my job where *I* work...and my managers are cool as all get out.

Turning a hobby into work...I don't know about this...

2008-06-21T19:12:00.005-04:00

With my old group of poker buddies now graduated and dispersed to the far corners of the country for work, I've been suffering from poker withdrawal. The one semi-regular game I know of is one involving several of my D&D crew among others, and I've been trying to get in on it for a while. None of them are real poker players, and a couple of them were initially a bit hesitant to let me join because they've somehow gotten it into their heads that I must be a card sharp. The less-paranoid among them (incidentally, con/pro-me-joining parties are divided along lines shockingly consistent with their personal win/loss track records) have been extending me invites for a couple sessions now, but I have not been able to fit the games into my schedule for one reason or another.

Anyway, I received an invitation to a Hold 'Em game tomorrow night, which I initially turned down because I really, really, really want to pass English 200. It's attempt three, if you can believe it! I don't know that I've ever heard of anybody requiring more than two attempts at a core curriculum English course before...if you have let me know so I can feel better about myself. I think I'm going to call tonight and change that to an RSVP yes. Lately I've been feeling bad about my shortage of self-driven study in the Major subject of my choice; The title of my blog is the result of self-reflective meditation. Tomorrow night I'm going to bring my webcam and/or video recorder to the game, and if I can convince everyone (may be asking too much at a game of poker), have them track the contents of their hands round-by-round on a little hand-out.

If all goes well, I should have a post next week dissecting the game as a case study in game theory. It should be a lot of fun, even if it does mean taking English 200 a fourth time! I’m not sure of the format for the game, but I’m hoping for tournament-style play since I’m less familiar with the dynamics of cash games.

p.s., if any of you guys are reading this, I know you were (mostly) joking about not letting me join, but it made the post more interesting if I pretended you were seriously opposed.

p.s.s., I *am* a bit of a card sharp, and am currently working to supplement my ingrained talent for intuitive odds calculations and opponent’s perception-of-incentives assessment with readings on the specifics of poker game theory and people-reading. Also I have a stupendous track record, winning ~every third or fourth tournament in a field of 6-9 players, and ending about half of those losing games in second place and so recouping my initial investment.

Economics of homelessness: A conversation with two beggars

2008-06-18T20:53:00.007-04:00

Sorry for the length on this post, my non-existent readers, but this IRC log was the only place I recorded the conversation and I feel like copying it directly is the best way to ensure an accurate relation of the event. The log has been edited slightly for grammar, spelling, and naughty language. To further corroborate this anecdotal evidence, see:

http://blog.hostgator.com/2007/11/28/hostgator-ceo-becomes-homeless/
"I prepared for being a bum by stealing my mom’s German Shepherd named Hawkmoon, not shaving for a week, and rolling us both around in dirt. I knew being a bum was serious business, and if I was going to compete with guys who were doing it for years, I would need to bring my game face."

--------------------------------

01[18:43] MerchantofCool If there's one thing I've learned during my tenure at college, it's this:

01
[18:44] MerchantofCool Asian girls are at least 5 times as likely to wear miniskirts in 50 degree and colder weather than any other ethnicity

01[18:45] MerchantofCool> And I for one applaud them for their heartiness

01[18:49] MerchantofCool> I also got one of my long held curiosities satisfied tonight!

01[18:49] MerchantofCool> I was going to the 7-11 by school to buy a pack of cigarettes

01[18:50] MerchantofCool> and had a few puffs left on my fag when I got there, so I hung outside for a couple minutes

01[18:50] MerchantofCool> there were two peddlers on the other corner, one is his 40's maybe, the other 20-something

01[18:50] MerchantofCool> Saw a chick walk past, said she didn't have any change, “how about a dollar?”

01[18:51] MerchantofCool> to which they of course replied "yeah!"

01[18:51] MerchantofCool>I go in and buy cigarettes, leave, walk past them, they of course ask for change

01[18:51] MerchantofCool> I say "hell no" with a little laugh and smile

01[18:51] MerchantofCool> they do the whole peddler "come on" thing

01[18:51] MerchantofCool> then he says "I just wanna get a cup of coffee to keep me warm"

01[18:52] MerchantofCool> I say "coffee's not going to warm you up man"

01[18:52] MerchantofCool> "yeah it will!"

[18:52] @ PEENTILLICUS> (!!!)

01[18:52] MerchantofCool> "Maybe for like, 2 or 3 minutes"

01[18:52] "every little bit helps"

01[18:52] MerchantofCool> "sorry man"

01[18:52] MerchantofCool> "C'mon, I got 89 cents right now, how about giving me the difference?"

01[18:52] MerchantofCool> "That chick just gave you a dollar"

01[18:52] MerchantofCool> "huh?"

01[18:53] MerchantofCool> "that chick just gave you a dollar right before I went into the store"

01[18:53] MerchantofCool> big grin cracks his face

01[18:53] MerchantofCool> "Oh, yeah, heh"

01[18:53] MerchantofCool> and they both start just cracking up

[18:53] @ PEENTILLICUS> Hahah

01[18:53] MerchantofCool> They ask for change one more time, I say “{heck} no, I need my change, I'm a poor man”

01[18:54] MerchantofCool> "I respect that, I respect that"

01[18:54] MerchantofCool> I walk away

01[18:54] MerchantofCool> A thought occurs to me after I get about half a block away, and I turn back around

[18:54] @ Hachi-Roku> haha

[18:54] @ PEENTILLICUS> (This must be universal drug dealer slang. I'm realizing all of a sudden, that I have supported drug dealers)

01[18:55] MerchantofCool> I yell at them as I draw near, "Hey guys, there's something I've been wondering about for a long time, and you two seems nice enough to maybe give me a straight answer"

01[18:55] MerchantofCool> "How much can you make peddling in a good day?"

[18:55] @ PEENTILLICUS> Hahaha

[18:55] @ PEENTILLICUS> (The balls on this kid!)

01[18:56] MerchantofCool> The one older guy starts off like he's going to {lie to} me

01[18:56] MerchantofCool> "I don't do this all the time, just ten dollars here and there, enough to get a bite to eat and buy some cigarettes…"

01[18:56] MerchantofCool> but the kid doesn't give a {heck}, he tells me, "If I crack a sign out, I'll make 200, 250 a week"

[18:56] @ PEENTILLICUS> Hm.

[18:56] @ PEENTILLICUS> Not bad.

01[18:57] MerchantofCool> "A friend of mine was down in Henrico (note: wealthy suburbs of richmond) a week or two ago" he told me

01[18:57] MerchantofCool> "One guy gave him $150, the next day a guy gave him $50"

01[18:57] MerchantofCool> I say "What the {heck} are you doing downtown then, man?"

01[18:57] MerchantofCool> He laughs, "I dunno...The women:)"

[18:57] @ PEENTILLICUS> Hahah!

[18:58] @ PEENTILLICUS> Man

[18:58] @ PEENTILLICUS> You should've bought something from these dudes

[18:59] @ PEENTILLICUS> Probably the first guy, the {liar}, was the one carrying

[18:59] @ Hachi-Roku> haha

01[18:59] MerchantofCool> Don’t they were dealers…

01[19:00] MerchantofCool> They looked way too put together to be dealers

01[19:00] MerchantofCool> oh

01[19:00] MerchantofCool> then the young guy said "I found a great spot in Philly, I'm hoping to get out there for a couple weeks, make a couple thousand dollars"

01[19:01] MerchantofCool> I knew these mother{people} weren't all bad off. I mean, you watch 'em for like 15 minutes you see at least 3 or 4 people dump some change on 'em

01[19:01] MerchantofCool> Goes a long way to confirming my suspicion that it's just a lifestyle choice for a lot of bums

[19:01] @ PEENTILLICUS> OH

[19:01] @ PEENTILLICUS> I thought the moral of the story was you knew they were dealers

[19:01] @ PEENTILLICUS> This was a lot of sneaking around and suspicions and mind changing for bums

01[19:02] MerchantofCool> how do you mean?

01[19:02] MerchantofCool> because he didn't wanna talk about how much he makes peddling?

[19:02] @ PEENTILLICUS> I mean it was like, I thought all along

[19:02] @ PEENTILLICUS> You knew they were dealing

[19:02] @ PEENTILLICUS> Peddling implies wares

01[19:02] MerchantofCool> Bums always pretend to be bad off

[19:02] @ PEENTILLICUS> Like he was selling

01[19:02] MerchantofCool> that's their hustle

[19:02] @ Hachi-Roku> haha

[19:02] @ PEENTILLICUS> I misunderstood this whole thing

01[19:02] MerchantofCool> haha

01[19:02] MerchantofCool> bet it was funnier?

[19:02] @ PEENTILLICUS> Oh, totally!

[19:03] @ PEENTILLICUS> It's still funny, you asking these guys about bumhood

01[19:03] MerchantofCool> I just liked the way they reacted when I pointed out their poor choice of lie

01[19:03] MerchantofCool> it was priceless

01[19:03] MerchantofCool> They were cool dudes

01[19:03] MerchantofCool> I'd hang with them any day of the week

[19:05] @ PEENTILLICUS> Yeah

01[19:07] MerchantofCool> I gotta tell me mum

01[19:08] MerchantofCool> I always used to tell her "I bet you can make really good money begging"

01[19:08] MerchantofCool> and she be all bleeding heart "Nuh-uh! They are poor and hungry and miserable and and they need help!!!"

01[19:09] MerchantofCool> And I’d be like, "I'd wager half of them are homeless because of drug problems or psychological issues, half because of lifestyle preference, with a few irregular outliers who actually have just had bad luck"

03[19:09] * PEENTILLICUS is now known as Giz|Dinner

01[19:12] MerchantofCool> but like, I'd always say to her, I'd say "There's no reason they couldn't get a job if they wanted to. We have a great employment rate in the US"

01[19:13] MerchantofCool> her response was always "They don't have any clothes, can't shower, etc. how are they going to get a job?"

01[19:13] MerchantofCool> 200 bucks a week, with no rent, buys a lot of clothes, and probably a razor too.

Economy of Fines and Fees; A Poor Young Student's Harrowing Trials

2008-06-18T14:33:00.001-04:00

(photo courtesy penny-arcade.com, slightly edited)

PART I

Did you know that, while my bank is open on Saturdays, no checks deposited on that day will clear until Monday? You probably did! I'm notorious for my ignorance of Common Knowledge.

So I accidentally miscalculate and drop one dollar and change below a zero balance, but no worries, I have a check in my wallet for forty-seven dollars, and past experience has taught me that if you bring your balance back to positive on the same day it goes negative, you're in the clear. So I drop my check off before noon, keep an eye on my online statement, and hold off on using my card until Sunday. Sure enough, I'm showing a positive balance, awesome I can buy cigarettes and sodas again! Horribly enough, I'm on an almost unsustainable twenty ounce and one pack a day diet. So by Monday, including a couple other small charges, I'm at just about ten dollars worth of expenditures. I check my balance once more on Monday, just to see where I'm at; Woe and behold, the +forty balance that was showing on Sunday was a RUSE.

I have to wonder, is it really very different in terms of the amount it costs my bank to cover one $50 dollar charge and the cost to cover 9 smaller charges totaling less than $15? Apparently they think so, because they hit me with *9* overdraft fees of $30 each. Ouch. 9*$30=$270, for those who don't care to do the arithmetic.

At this point I'm panicked. It's the very end of the semester, I'm already stressing over exams, and I'm not set to start back to work for another couple of weeks (And from then it's 2 more weeks until payday). First chance I get I race to the bank to plead with them, and to their credit they did take off some of the fees, leaving me with a balance of negative $190. Did I mention its also tax time? In the past, being married with a dependent and very little income, this was always a Good Thing, as it meant I got back some small portion of what had been thieved from me over the previous year. This year, being now divorced and with my ex claiming a dependent, I went from receiving a rather substantial rebate to owing a sum that others might consider trivial but is bank-breaking for me (with no real change to my expenses or income, how much sense does that make? In fact, the expenses/income ratio has probably increased a bit).

So I borrow and bum for a month until I can get a decent wage check and pay down my outstanding bank balance, and about a week and a half prior to receiving these standard-of-life-saving funds I get a call from the friendly people at the bank asking me when I might be thinking about paying off this debt. I tell them when I get this paycheck, and ask the kind man if there will be any more fees between now and then for the outstanding balance: "No, no more fees, just so long as you pay it down". One and a half weeks later, check in hand, I march triumphantly to the bank to make a deposit and clear my good name!

They: "Your account has been closed, and a $40 fee for its closure has been added to your balance".
I: "Oh. OK. Well, I'd like to pay my $230 negative balance and re-open the account"
They: "You sure can pay, thanks:). Now...about re-opening your account, let me talk to my manager...Well, we can't just open your account, we're going to have to call the regional manager. If you give us your contact number, we'll contact you in a couple of days to let you know"
2 days pass..."You have 1 new voice mail"
First new voice mail: "Hi Dustin, this is Bonnie from First Market Bank, I just wanted to let you know that we are unable to open a new checking account for you at this time. It seems you've been negative quite a few times (emphasis NOT added), and I'm sorry but we cannot open an account for you at this time. Thank you." (in fact, I have dipped below zero perhaps 3 or 4 times since opening the account 5 years ago, and never by more than a few dollars and never for more than a day)

To summarize this very long, but hopefully involving and tear-jerking story, $10-15 dollars in charges against a $1 negative balance, with a $47 check waiting to clear (Please note: I have never bounced a check before) results in $240 after-reduction in fines, and termination as a customer.

PART II

I go to a public university, Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU, foo'). I had about 20 books checked out for a class, and being the absent-minded idiot that I am, confused the due date as being 5 days past the actual date. Ah well, a quarter a day per book at 19 books = $23.75. Seems a little bit high, but I can swing it, and I presume it's $.25 when local public libraries charge $.05-$.10 because they have a problem with students keeping books late, and students need books to be in when they want them for time-limited assignments. Gathering up all my books, I run to the library just before it closes, dump out my two backpacks full on the desk and ask to pay my fine right then so I can check out some more books I need and re-borrow some of the ones I had overdue.
They: "Looks like you're missing one book still. 'The Study Abroad Handbook'"
I: "Bugger, alright, it's probably just around the house somewhere. I can't check any of these back out until I return it, right?"
They: "Right. I can place an overnight hold on the ones you want though! ^_^"
I: "Thanks! Be back tomorrow!"
Cannot find book. Oh well, it'll turn up but I really need to check out some books now, I'll just buy it from the library, I'd like to have a copy of the book anyway. Second trip to the library...
I: "Hey, I have some books on overnight hold, but I have one overdue that I can't find. Can I just go ahead and pay for that book so I can get these out?"
They: "It's $70..."
I: "$70?!"
They: *nod*
So I sigh and head for the exit dejected, but between the desk and the door a thought occurs to me. Turning back around I find a place at one of the library computers on the first floor and pull up Amazon.com. $23.00, shipping included. Heading back past the desk towards the doors I remark casually but with some small amount of venom "It's $23 on amazon, AFTER shipping".
They: "It's a flat price of $70 for all books lost..."
I: "Why?"
They: "Well, it's not just the cost of the book, we also have to process it. There's a processing fee, and, uh, we have to process it and..."
I: "It costs you $47 to put a single paperback book into your system and on a shelf?! That's gotta be the most inefficient inventory management I've ever seen. "
They (she): *blinks*
I: "It's not *you*, I understand. Have a good rest of the day" *pained smile*

Further discussion of Part II
It's worth mentioning that the books I had overdue were INCREDIBLY esoteric. Titles included:

Saura Ramos, Pedro A. : The cave of Altamira / photographs by Pedro A. Saura Ramos ; with essays by Matilde Múzquiz Pérez-Seoane
Burles, Mark, 1970- : Patterns in China's use of force : evidence from history and doctrinal writings
Nigg, Joe. : A guide to the imaginary birds of the world / by Joe Nigg ; featuring woodcuts by David Frampton ; with an introduction by Roger Tory Peterson
African folktales & sculpture.
and Perry, T. M. (Thomas Melville), 1927- : The discovery of Australia : the charts and maps of the navigators and explorers

Most of these books had their last stamps months or years prior to my checking them out, and many had clearly *never* been opened. Thank the maker, I found the missing book after days of search. Still, what we learn is that the end result of having 19 books out five days late, not one having received a single hold request over the 2 months in which they were checked out, is about $25 in fines. The penalty fee for losing a school library book costing $23 dollars new is $47, after having paid a fee as part of my tuition for access to library resources.

Now, to hit my mom back for the money she spotted me to pay the $50 parking ticket I received for parking 2 hours and 15 minutes in a 2 hour parking spot that was 10 minutes from turning into unlimited parking (2 hour parking until 4 p.m.)!

Economy of Lies

2008-06-18T14:27:00.000-04:00

Barrels of Fun

2008-05-26T22:37:00.000-04:00

I'm a sucker for all things novel and free (note the AND operator, rather than OR). The warehouse next door to the one where I work does advertising campaigns or some such thing for liquor companies, and they were moving to a new location. They were just going to throw out a barrel! A perfectly good barrel; Iron bound, good wood, a little cork on the side, and logoed "Knob Creek Whiskey, aged 9 years". Naturally, I couldn't pass it up. How often do you get the chance at a free barrel?

I have no idea what I'm going to do with this thing. Maybe I can sell it on craigslist, or make a table out of it. Anyway, I've been on cloud nine ever since. What a find!

I'm such a packrat. I can't pass up anything free, 'cause there's gotta be SOMETHING I can do with it, right? Any ideas are welcomed, but I've already had two "niagara falls" suggestions. It'll probably just sit in the garage collecting dust like the various random pieces of glass I got out of the dumpster at work with the idea I'd make a fountain out of them. Hey, maybe I could incorpate the barrel into a fountain somehow?

2008-05-04T22:51:00.000-04:00

High gas prices aren't so bad, really. They are already promoting alternative forms of travel (pack animal), and use of renewable energy sources (whatever camels eat...). via Greg Mankiw.

huh-wha?

2008-05-04T20:43:00.001-04:00

Testing; Testing 1-2-3